Redemptions, leverage and the changing architecture of market liquidity.

A shock does not carry a fixed economic consequence. This paper names the present conjunction of recurrent supply disturbances, persistent sovereign borrowing, a higher price for duration and narrower policy room a fiscal-supply regime, states where the classification is tested, and states what would retire it.

An integrated macroeconomic, on-chain, derivatives and historical analysis of whether the August recovery constitutes regime change or a reflexive bear-market repricing. The thesis is tested at the $71,000–$77,000 cost-basis complex, and the conditions that would falsify it are stated in the paper.